Wu Huiling (伍慧萍) is the deputy director of the Deutschlandforschungszentrum der Tongji-Universität (Tongji University’s Centre of German Studies).
Link to this commentary (in Simplified Chinese): http://comment.cfisnet.com/2024/0221/1329534.html.
Translation:
In recent years, under the influence of a series of domestic and international factors, the momentum of the rise of far-right and right-wing populist parties in Europe has undoubtedly strengthened the trend of right-wing shift in Europe. However, in many European countries, mainstream parties view far-right and right-wing populist parties as challenges and threats to democracy, not only refusing to cooperate with them but also collectively building a ‘firewall’ to exclude them. Therefore, although the overall size of major mainstream parties in Europe is likely to shrink significantly after the European Parliament elections in June, they may still hold the majority in the European Parliament, avoiding political earthquakes in Europe. It can be foreseen that under the impact of a series of crises in recent years, the rightward shift in European society will be a long-term and gradual process.
The right-wing party ‘Values Union’ in Germany has just announced its establishment and plans to participate in the state parliamentary elections in Brandenburg, Saxony, and Thuringia in September. The rise of the far-right in Germany seems to be gaining momentum. Will such a Germany be a microcosm of Europe? Against the backdrop of multiple crises, will Europe, in this ‘super election year’, experience a collective rightward shift in the political spectrum?
This year, the European Parliament elections, held every five years, will see a reshuffle of leadership in EU institutions and a reorganisation of forces within the parliament. Following the Finnish elections, EU member states such as Portugal, Belgium, Austria, Romania, and Croatia, and non-EU European countries such as Russia, the UK, and Ukraine, will also hold national elections. Three federal states in eastern Germany will hold state parliamentary elections. This series of important elections will serve as a political barometer for Europe, especially the European Parliament elections in June, which many believe will determine the fate of Europe. Forces from both the left and right camps are focusing on this election, rallying or restructuring at both national and European levels, engaging in a struggle over fundamental issues regarding the future direction of European integration.
Currently, Europe is deeply mired in multiple crises. In the traditional security domain, the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains deadlocked, with no immediate breakthrough and the potential to evolve into a medium- to long-term regional conflict. The protracted tug-of-war in the US Congress over the aid to Ukraine bill reflects the growing opposition within the US to aid to Ukraine, and Trump’s threat during the campaign not to protect NATO member states that fail to meet defence spending targets directly challenges NATO’s longstanding principles of collective defence and unity, causing a stir in this Western security and defence alliance and forcing European countries to strengthen their own military expansion and deterrence policies. In the non-traditional security domain, the new wave of refugees triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict is shaking European society. In 2023, the number of asylum applications in France reached a historic high, with issues of new and old refugee immigration intertwined, making immigration one of the dominant issues in the elections. In the political and social fields, Europe faces increasing pressure from global geopolitical competition externally and fierce confrontations between grassroots and established forces, globalisation and anti-globalisation, populism and elitism internally. In the economic field, the dividends of globalisation and integration are giving way to trade protectionism and geopolitical priorities. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to high prices, energy supply tensions, corporate relocation, economic downturn, and difficulties for the people, triggering strong dissatisfaction among the population towards the government and ruling parties. In the diplomatic field, the US presidential election in November will undoubtedly be a major test for transatlantic relations. If the MAGA (Make America Great Again) group drives Trump back to the White House, Europe will face a double setback in Euro-American relations and European security architecture.
In such a changing situation, far-right and right-wing populist parties have continued to strengthen in many European countries and have begun to strengthen their coordination and restructuring in the background of the European Parliament elections. Mainstream parties in the political centre face severe tests. Can far-right and right-wing populist parties break through and collectively push Europe’s political spectrum to the right in this ‘super election year’? In fact, under the influence of the new and old refugee waves, many mainstream parties in Europe have quietly shifted to the right collectively on immigration policies, and the upward momentum of far-right and right-wing populist parties in recent years has undoubtedly strengthened the trend of rightward shift in Europe. According to current polls, far-right and right-wing populist parties rank first in nine EU countries including Italy, France, the Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, and Hungary, and second or third in nine other EU countries including Germany, Portugal, Romania, and Sweden. After the European Parliament elections, the two concentrated parliamentary groups of far-right and right-wing populist parties are expected to expand in scale, and the proportion of MEPs from far-right and right-wing populist parties in the European Parliament may increase from the current one-fifth to one-fourth or even higher, setting a record since the first European Parliament elections held in 1979. In view of this, some European think tanks and politicians have concluded that Europe is collectively turning right, believing that it is not easy to prevent far-right and right-wing populist parties from further gaining strength.
In many European countries, mainstream parties view far-right and right-wing populist parties as risks and threats to European democracy, not only refusing to cooperate with them but also collectively building a ‘firewall’ to exclude them. Although the Alternative for Germany (AfD) has always positioned itself as a right-wing populist party, striving to avoid being labelled as ‘extreme right’ or ‘anti-democratic’, the German Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution still considers that three-quarters of its members show extreme right-wing tendencies, and the Federal Constitutional Court recently confirmed the objective existence of its extreme right-wing potential in a recent ruling. In German society, anti-populist and extremist sentiments are also significant. Since mid-January this year, many cities in Germany have continued to hold demonstrations, with millions of people participating, targeting right-wing extremism and the Alternative for Germany (AfD), supporting the maintenance of open society and democratic constitutional values. In Germany, the country that triggered two world wars, mainstream public opinion has a deeper reflection on history and is highly vigilant against extreme right-wing ideologies and neo-Nazi trends, unwilling to repeat the mistakes of ‘heading towards war in a state of somnambulism’. Such social movements reflect the mainstream public opinion’s anti-extremism orientation, demonstrating substantial resistance to right-wing populist parties and extremism in Europe.
In the European Parliament, pro-European political forces are mainly composed of the European People’s Party, the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats, the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe, and the Greens-European Free Alliance group. Currently, in various European countries, including left-wing parties, left-wing populist parties, and green parties, the left camp is generally in decline, and support for centre-right parties has also declined somewhat. The overall size of major mainstream parties in Europe is likely to shrink significantly after the European Parliament elections in June. However, mainstream parties in the political centre are estimated to be able to hold the majority in the European Parliament again, thus avoiding drastic political earthquakes in Europe. It can be foreseen that under the impact of a series of crises since the new century, the rightward shift in European society will be a long-term and gradual process.